SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012229
NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-012330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1398
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD/WRN NEB/NERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 012229Z - 012330Z
PORTIONS OF SWRN SD INTO WRN NEB/NERN CO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR A POTENTIAL WATCH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS THAT DEVELOP
OVER SERN WY...NORTH CENTRAL CO AND SWRN SD POTENTIALLY EVOLVE INTO
AN MCS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED INITIAL MID LEVEL IMPULSE THAT AIDED
EARLY AFTERNOON TSTMS OVER SWRN SD HAS MOVED ESEWD TO ALONG THE
CENTRAL NEB/SD BORDER. MEANWHILE...FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO
A SECOND BETTER DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WY
IS LIKELY AIDING TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SRN/SERN WY...FAR N CENTRAL CO AND SWRN SD. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
GREATEST IN COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE CAP HAS
WEAKENED...WHILE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED SOME SURFACE BASED
CINH OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SHORT TERM MODELS /18Z NAM AND 12Z 1KM WRF/S NMM AND ARW/ ALL TEND
TO AGREE THAT AN MCS WILL FORM THIS EVENING ACROSS WRN NEB AND TRACK
SSEWD AS SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 40 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER WRN/CENTRAL NEB AND NERN CO
COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /UP TO 40-45 KT/
WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS.
..PETERS.. 07/01/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40980389 42720397 43370375 43440197 42700038 41610018
40420039 39980087 39980158 40350232 40980389
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