SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061822
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-062015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1455
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CDT MON JUL 06 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/ERN CO/NERN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 061822Z - 062015Z
CONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES MAY
EVENTUALLY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM SERN WY SWD INTO NRN NM...AHEAD OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WITHIN THE
BROADER SHORT-WAVE RIDGE. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE ASSISTING IN
SOME BACKING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS --
WITH GENERALLY SELY FLOW NOW INDICATED.
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION...AND WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 ADVECTING NWWD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...MIXED-LAYER CAPE /NOW IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE/ WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED/SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH STORMS SHIFTING SLOWLY SEWD WITH TIME OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
ONLY MODEST NWLYS ARE INDICATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...VEERING FLOW WITH
HEIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZATION/WEAK
ROTATION...AND ASSOCIATED/LOCAL THREATS FOR HAIL/WIND -- OR EVEN AN
ISOLATED WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO. EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION/SEVERE
THREAT MAY WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.
..GOSS.. 07/06/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...
LAT...LON 40940539 41840492 41570390 40440275 37500248 35500282
35120436 35540536 36790555 38370529 39220500 40940539
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