MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1488

ACUS11 KWNS 081736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081736
OKZ000-TXZ000-081900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1488
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...OK...TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 081736Z - 081900Z

DAYTIME MCS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS OK AND...WHILE LATEST TRENDS
INDICATE A CONTRACTION TO THE OVERALL AREA OF TSTMS...THIS
CONSOLIDATION HAS RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY BETTER MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION
TO THE OVERALL SYSTEM BUT A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE
HAIL THREAT. UPDRAFTS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE POST-OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT
NEAR OKC...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COLLIDE SHORTLY NEAR NRN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY. EARLIER
CELLS THAT DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM QUICKLY WEAKENED OVER
CLEVELAND COUNTY INDICATING THAT THE ENVIRONMENT FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS HOSTILE TO PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVENTION.

LIFT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SYSTEM COLD POOL AND IN THE PRESENCE OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS MAY CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
STORM/UPDRAFT FORMATION. PRC PROFILER INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN
WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS CNTRL OK OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH
10-15KT LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW TOPPED BY 25-30KT MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW.
RESULTING CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND POSSIBLY MCS MAINTENENCE. HOWEVER...THIS
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE TEMPERED BY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS
WRN/CNTRL SECTIONS OF OK.

IF CONVECTION PERSISTS AND A LARGE ENOUGH DEEP COLD POOL SPREADS
S/SEWD INTO AXIS OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND WEAKENING INHIBITION
ACROSS SRN/SERN OK AND NRN TX...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD INCREASE AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
HOWEVER...UNTIL THIS SCENARIO BEGINS TO APPEAR MORE
LIKELY...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE GREATEST HAZARD...IN
ADDITION TO LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL.

..CARBIN.. 07/08/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33159513 33399617 34499701 35219738 35499728 35699650
35049562 34359450 33679483 33159513

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