SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081959
KSZ000-082100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1490
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN-ERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 081959Z - 082100Z
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF NERN KS. ONGOING INTENSE TSTM
OVER FRANKLIN COUNTY KS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND MOVE SSEWD INTO
PARTS OF FAR ERN/SERN KS.
RECENT KTWX RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN INITIALLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTM
OVER NERN KS HAS INTENSIFIED AND HAS LIKELY BECOME SURFACE-BASED IN
THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE IN PART TO IT
ENCOUNTERING A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER IN ADDITION TO MID-UPPER
SUPPORT FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF A WEAK IMPULSE OVER THE
LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY CRESTING LARGER SCALE UPPER RIDGE. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY/SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW A MODEST CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG AND TO THE W OF TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NERN
KS. MODIFIED 12Z TOP RAOB AND 18Z AREA RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LITTLE
CINH REMAINS. HOWEVER...BOTH ETAKF/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A
WARM LAYER IN THE H75-H7 LAYER...INDICATIVE OF A WEAKENED BUT
REMAINING CAPPING INVERSION. AS A RESULT...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL STORMS CAN INITIATE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THAT IS CHARACTERIZED AS MODERATE-STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND
WITHIN BELT OF STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT. IF STORMS DO INDEED
DEVELOP...AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE ALONG INSTABILITY
GRADIENT OVER ERN KS.
..SMITH.. 07/08/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38869571 38599520 38359484 37929474 37529469 37299476
37279501 37399528 39139723 39889778 39909716 39689677
38869571
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