SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091957
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-092130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1501
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE NEB...SE SD...NW IA...SW MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 091957Z - 092130Z
RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY CONTINUE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
RECENT FLARE UP OF STORMS ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY APPEARS TO
BE OCCURRING JUST EAST OF A LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS...ON THE NOSE OF A VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EAST OF THE
ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS WHERE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE
BECOME MAXIMIZED...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF BETTER PRE-FRONTAL
LOWER/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN STRONG OR PARTICULARLY
LONG-LIVED...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
INSTABILITY/CONVECTION. BUT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK MID/UPPER IMPULSE COULD MAINTAIN
STORM DEVELOPMENT EAST NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE MINNESOTA/ IOWA BORDER
AREA THROUGH THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME.
..KERR.. 07/09/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 43009703 43919570 44319420 44349276 43749191 43269234
42849339 42379478 42179570 42459693 43009703
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment