SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092257
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-100100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1503
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0557 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OK...NERN TX AND ERN OK PANHANDLES...SWRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 092257Z - 100100Z
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRY MICROBURSTS.
A SUBSTANTIAL HIGH BASED CU FIELD EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO NEAR 110 F. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS WELL THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO
MAINTAINING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO NEAR 1.20 INCHES...AS
MEASURED BY GPS WATER VAPOR SENSORS OVER NW OK...AND WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 F.
ALTHOUGH SOME SUBSIDENCE LIKELY EXISTS ALOFT UNDER THE
RIDGE...CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH WEAK...MAY
COMBINE WITH A MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGEMENT WHICH IS BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN ISOLATED
STORMS. EXCESSIVE DCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG SUGGEST LOCALLY
DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY ACTIVITY.
..JEWELL.. 07/09/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 37219805 36649813 36379887 36209972 36150026 36360073
36710113 37100104 37859953 37829897 37679838 37219805
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