MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1510

ACUS11 KWNS 102032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102032
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-102200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1510
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SERN CO...FAR WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 102032Z - 102200Z

CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE RATON MESA AND THE PALMER DIVIDE
SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AS ACTIVITY ATTEMPTS TO
PROPAGATE INTO A MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WANES RAPIDLY WITH SRN EXTENT...WHILE SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE MORE ISOLATED WITH NRN EXTENT.
THUS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE NEED FOR A WW WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

A FEW TSTMS HAD FORMED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS THE RATON
MESA/SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS OF FAR SERN CO/NERN NM. ALTHOUGH THIS
AREA REMAINS ON THE FRINGE OF MODEST WLY HIGH-LEVEL FLOW /PER AREA
PROFILERS/...VERY LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS AROUND
50 DEG F WOULD SUPPORT A SHORT-TERM THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY
MICROBURSTS. FARTHER N...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CU/SMALL
CB INCREASING ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE WITHIN A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW
REGIME WHERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS IMMINENT. WITH UPPER 50S AND
60S SURFACE DEW POINTS LINGERING ACROSS THE E-CNTRL CO
PLAINS...STRONGER HIGH-LEVEL WLYS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS PRIMARILY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PEAK DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS ACTIVITY
SPREADS TOWARDS GREATER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE CO/KS
BORDER...WHICH APPEARS TO BE REASONABLY DEPICTED BY HI-RES 12Z
WRF-NMM AND 00Z WRF-NSSL GUIDANCE.

..GRAMS.. 07/10/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 38960141 38070121 37210141 36850183 36740291 36910362
37580448 38660431 39150404 39510283 39420182 38960141

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