SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102240
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-110015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1511
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SRN AND ERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 102240Z - 110015Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SRN...CNTRL
AND ERN KS EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE ACTIVITY. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY
ONCE CERTAINTY INCREASES CONCERNING THE NUMBER OF INTENSE STORMS
THAT CAN DEVELOP.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1004 MB LOW OVER NW OK WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EWD ACROSS FAR SRN KS SEWD INTO NW AR. ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT IN NW OK SFC TEMPS RANGE FROM 110 TO 117 F WITH THE
HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS /70+ F/ LOCATED EWD ACROSS ERN KS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE HEAT LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF
DODGE CITY KS AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO THE WICHITA
AREA THIS EVENING WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 6000 TO 7000 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH STORM BASES WILL NO DOUBT BE VERY HIGH...THE EXTREME
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE
HILLSBOROUGH KS PROFILER SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF RAPID AND INTENSE
STORM DEVELOPMENT IF DEEP STORMS CAN INITIATE. WITH A VERY HOT
AIRMASS IN PLACE...WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXIST IN NERN KS WHERE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WILL BE STRONGER THAN AREAS FURTHER SOUTHWEST. IF SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN FAR ERN KS...THEN A WW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL.
..BROYLES.. 07/10/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 37379639 36989783 36539967 36660045 37310098 38240074
38519998 38479912 38909719 39519589 39579535 39369470
38809460 38099501 37709552 37379639
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