SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111837
NYZ000-PAZ000-112000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1519
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...UPSTATE NEW YORK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570...
VALID 111837Z - 112000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570
CONTINUES.
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW WW...INTO PARTS OF THE
HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND SHIFTING EAST OF THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...A BROAD LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION IS BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...EAST OF THE BUFFALO AREA.
ALTHOUGH PROSPECTS FOR SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION OF UPDRAFTS SEEMS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO FAIRLY THICK CONVECTIVELY GENERATED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO SLIGHTLY DRIER DOWNSTREAM INFLOW
SOURCE REGION...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL COULD STILL INCREASE BETWEEN
NOW AND 20-21Z NEAR/NORTH OF BINGHAMTON TOWARD THE ALBANY AREA.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET STREAK WILL STRENGTHEN TO
40-50 KTS ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THIS TIME...IN RESPONSE TO THE
CONVECTIVE IMPULSE...AND THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG UPSTREAM
SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH. IF THIS OCCURS...CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS WILL
AIDE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT...AND A FEW GUSTS COULD APPROACH OR
EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.
..KERR.. 07/11/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...
LAT...LON 42487686 43477510 43507464 43427368 42467362 42077476
41977602 42117694 42487686
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