SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112320
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-120115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1523
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...WRN TN...NERN AR
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 112320Z - 120115Z
COMPLEX SFC FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES WSWWD ACROSS IL/MO/KS...JUST
NORTH OF STRONG MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE OVER
OK/TX. AROUND THE NRN-ERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
THERE IS REASONABLE FLOW AT H5 WHERE ROUGHLY 30KT IS OBSERVED ATOP
WEAK ELY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS ZONE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MO WHERE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST...PWAT VALUES
ABOVE 2 INCHES. SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR STORM ROTATION/ORGANIZATION
BUT MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST HAIL SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN AOB
SEVERE LEVELS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE
DOMINANT THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF AN MCS CAN EVOLVE. SEWD PROPAGATION
COMPONENT INDICATES ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD INTO SRN IL/WRN KY/TN.
IF AN MCS EVOLVES AND BEGINS TO SURGE SEWD AT 35-40KT THEN A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD BECOME A CONCERN. WILL MONITOR FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY AND POSSIBLE WW.
..DARROW.. 07/11/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 38819159 37308829 35868901 35989074 37109258 37879417
38949407 38819159
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