MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1547

ACUS11 KWNS 131807
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131807
COZ000-131930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1547
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131807Z - 131930Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF OF
DENVER CYCLONE OVER NERN CO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A WW.

AN AREA OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS OBSERVED
IN WV IMAGERY MOVING NE THROUGH UT AND TOWARD WRN-CENTRAL CO.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES HAS SUBSEQUENTLY
INCREASED WITH THIS FEATURE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER EXPERIENCES
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. FARTHER E...WIND SHIFT EXTENDING ENE
FROM THE FRONT RANGE /LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH DENVER CYCLONE/ IS
OBSERVED IN LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION IS STRONG ALONG THIS SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ZONE...WHICH MAY FAVOR STORM DEVELOPMENT E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS
LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AOA 8.5 C PER KM/
SPREADING E INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS COMBINED WITH 50S TO NEAR
60S DEWPOINTS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH
ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. THIS
INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH STRONGLY
VEERING WIND PROFILES /YIELDING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30
KT/ MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT STORM ORGANIZATION FOR A LARGE HAIL
THREAT WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFT CORES...THOUGH HIGH MELTING HEIGHT
MAY LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL MELTING. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO TAKE ON
AN INVERTED-V TYPE PROFILE...SUGGESTIVE OF HYBRID MICROBURST
POTENTIAL. AN ISOLATED NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE...WHERE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
MAXIMIZED WITH AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY FOCUSED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.

..GARNER.. 07/13/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 39050358 38920490 39300549 40290562 40600446 40730336
40530265 39490277 39050358

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