SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141956
NDZ000-142130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1558
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 141956Z - 142130Z
THE THREAT FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
LOW-TOPPED TSTMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF STRONG
MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH WRN ND. THIS
ACTIVITY IS FORMING ON THE NOSE OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHERE
SBCAPE HAS INCREASED TO A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. BIS VWP INDICATES A
CORRIDOR OF HIGHER MOMENTUM WLY FLOW /40-50 KT/ AROUND 4-5 KM...WITH
A NOTABLE DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BELOW 3 KM. WHILE SOME LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE WEAKER LOW-LEVEL WINDS
COUPLED WITH THE MARGINAL CAPE/DCAPE SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WIND THREAT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE MOST INTENSE STORMS
TO BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
..MEAD.. 07/14/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 46540070 48110063 48860022 48899906 47879836 46549837
46199954 46540070
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