SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162004
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-162130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1582
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN PA INTO NJ...NRN DE AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 162004Z - 162130Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA INTO THIS EVENING.
A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
TSTMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
ERN PARTS OF NY/PA AND THE DELMARVA. AS OF 1950Z...THE MOST INTENSE
STORM WAS LOCATED OVER LUZERNE COUNTY IN FAR SERN PA WITH A MOTION
OF 270/30 KT.
AIR MASS OVER THE DE RIVER VALLEY HAS WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...IS RESULTING
POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE IS APPROACHING
1000-1500 J/KG. FARTHER E OVER NYC...LONG ISLAND INTO SWRN NEW
ENGLAND...BOUNDARY LAYER IS COMPARATIVELY COOLER AND MORE STABLE
OWING TO MARINE INFLUENCES.
GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR...IT
APPEARS THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF ERN PA AND NJ. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL.
..MEAD.. 07/16/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 39907649 40857601 41277508 41497431 41427360 40807336
39847407 39287461 39267537 39357581 39907649
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