SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162055
NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-162200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1583
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE DE RIVER VALLEY / UPSTATE NY / VT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587...
VALID 162055Z - 162200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587
CONTINUES.
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE DISCUSSION AREA
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD DMGG WIND
GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
RECENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN ARCING SCTD BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS EXTENDING FROM EXTREME NERN ONTARIO INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
SWD INTO NERN PA. SURFACE DATA/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A
LAKE BREEZE ORIGINATING FROM LAKE ONTARIO HAS EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED
THE AIRMASS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS /W OF ONGOING STORMS OVER THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
THEIR VIGOR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO A LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND AN OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND IN STORM INTENSITY. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR /35-50 KTS 0-6 KM/ IN AREA VWP DATA WILL SUPPORT
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH OCCASIONAL STORM-SCALE ROTATION POSSIBLE.
..SMITH.. 07/16/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
LAT...LON 41697595 42627503 43527400 44087371 44827382 45017265
44967171 44457171 43717232 43197246 42767295 41697342
41027425 40767511 40897574 41697595
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