SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171912
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-172045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1598
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NJ INTO SERN NY AND SWRN NEW ENGLAND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 171912Z - 172045Z
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS REGION THROUGH REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
WW.
TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG NOSE OF SURFACE THERMAL AXIS
OVER NRN NJ AND FAR SERN NY...DRIVEN LARGELY BY LOW-LEVEL WAA PER
PHI/NYC VWPS. IN FACT...STORM OVER WESTCHESTER COUNTY NY HAS SPLIT
WITH SRN MEMBER EXHIBITING SOME MIDLEVEL ROTATION. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS IS RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING REGION FROM THE W/SW WHICH
SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT DIABATIC HEATING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...PERSISTENT SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG.
ABOVE-MENTIONED VWPS INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS BELOW 1-2 KM
AGL...BUT NOTABLY STRONGER SWLY FLOW IS BEING OBSERVED ABOVE 4-5 KM
WHICH IS LIKELY SUPPORTING THE ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURE OVER
WESTCHESTER COUNTY. CURRENTLY...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
WIDESPREAD ANY EVENTUAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BECOME GIVEN THE
NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS. SHOULD STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY A WW MAY BE NECESSARY.
..MEAD.. 07/17/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
LAT...LON 41137457 41667435 42007399 42197330 42217292 41907263
41497284 41227330 40987375 40887429 41137457
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