SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171921
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-172015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1599
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS / SERN CO / TX-OK PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 171921Z - 172015Z
SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY OVER SWRN NE AND NWRN KS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A DMGG SUPERCELL CLUSTER/MCS AS THEY
MOVE SWD INTO SWRN KS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
TOWARDS THIS EVENING. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 20Z OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA AS STORMS MOVE INTO SRN PORTIONS OF WW 593.
VISIBLE SATELLITE/SURFACE LOOP SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
NEAR I-40 IN TX/OK NWWD AND THEN NWD JUST E OF THE KS/CO BORDER.
THE NRN HALF OF THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED ITS WRN
MOTION...EFFECTIVELY ORIENTING THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT N-S WITH DRY
AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING IN WRN KS/NWRN OK.
STRONGLY VEERING 0-3 KM WINDS ACCORDING TO GLD VWP DATA BENEATH
STRONG NNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR INITIAL SUPERCELL MODE WITH LARGE
TO VERY LAGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. BEFORE COLD POOL
CONSOLIDATION/STORM MERGING PROCESSES SPUR CONVECTIVE MODE
TRANSITION...IF A STORM ON THE WRN FLANK OF ONGOING COMPLEX CAN MOVE
SWD ALONG BOUNDARY AND BECOME SURFACE-BASED AND INGEST MOISTURE
RICH/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IMMEDIATELY TO THE W...AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO
IS POSSIBLE. ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED POSSIBILITY...EXPECTING
SEVERE TSTM CLUSTER TO ESSENTIALLY ZIPPER SWD ALONG AND SLIGHTLY TO
THE E OF THE BOUNDARY WHILE MAINTAINING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FEED OF
MOIST/UNSTABLE PARCELS.
..SMITH.. 07/17/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35420267 35930313 38420261 38560251 38720227 38620152
38650064 38430052 37960051 35470068 35320146 35420267
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