SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182320
TXZ000-NMZ000-190045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1614
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX PNHDL...ERN NM...SE CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 601...
VALID 182320Z - 190045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 601
CONTINUES.
THE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A MID-LEVEL WAVE IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DIGGING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO/THROUGH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE MAY BE SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...AND THIS MAY REMAIN THE CASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE...SEVERAL INTENSE STORMS ARE
ONGOING...PARTICULARLY NEAR/SOUTH OR DALHART. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH COUPLED MID/UPPER SPEED MAXIMA MAY BE ENHANCING THIS
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW LONG THIS WILL REMAIN THE
CASE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY STRONG SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MODEST
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH 30-40 KT NORTHERLY 500 MB
WINDS...STORM-SCALE DYNAMIC FORCING WILL PROBABLY MAINTAIN SEVERE
STORMS WELL INTO THE EVENING...IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000-2000+ J/KG.
LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SIZABLE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS
AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SURFACE COLD POOLS. WITH AT
LEAST SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW LIKELY NEAR THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER AREAS BY 02-03Z...FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG/ABOVE CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS MAY SUPPORT AN
EXPANDING STORM CLUSTER. AND THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS NEAR OR SOUTH OF
CLOVIS...GENERALLY WEST OF PLAINVIEW AND LUBBOCK.
..KERR.. 07/18/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33390372 34140380 34650382 35320364 35580305 35500240
34920199 33850200 33300229 33110281 33080334 33390372
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