MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1642

ACUS11 KWNS 212045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212044
COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-212145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1642
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY SWD ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE INTO NERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 212044Z - 212145Z

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

TSTMS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY NUMEROUS TODAY OVER THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE
DE CRISTO RANGES WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE BUT WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FARTHER N
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE NW OF COS WITH OTHER STORMS POSSIBLE BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON NWD INTO SERN WY /W OF CYS/. THIS STORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED /AT LEAST IN PART/ WITH
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING EWD THROUGH CO/NM...PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MOREOVER...THESE DATA ALSO SUGGEST A POSSIBLE IMPULSE
SITUATED ALONG THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE MOISTURE PLUME OVER NWRN
CO/SRN WY.

EROSION OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS IS ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM
THROUGH THE 70S...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE
50S...AIR MASS IS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG. REGIONAL PROFILER AND VWP DATA INDICATE THAT THE
STRONGEST MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT VERTICAL SHEAR
/35-45 KT/ RESIDE OVER THE NRN HALF OF CO AND SRN WY...PERHAPS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ABOVE-MENTIONED IMPULSE. WHILE STORMS OVER S-CNTRL
CO INTO NERN NM WILL REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED...SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED...ROTATING STORMS WILL EXIST FROM THE PUB/COS AREAS NWD.
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS.

..MEAD.. 07/21/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

LAT...LON 38350554 40390565 41250602 41680569 41910511 41470445
39500408 37140416 35450516 35310558 35650598 36490621
38350554

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