MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1701

ACUS11 KWNS 281956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281955
AZZ000-UTZ000-282100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1701
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN UT...NRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281955Z - 282100Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER SRN UT AND NRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. A WW DOES NOT
APPEAR NECESSARY.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST FEW HRS N OF AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH AND S OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE
N-CENTRAL/NWRN CONUS. UPPER ASCENT WITHIN REAR QUADRANT OF H25 JET
COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE
DESTABILIZATION FOR CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD 1000-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FLOW /40-60 KT AT AROUND
300 MB/ MAY FAVOR BRIEF STORM ORGANIZATION. AS A RESULT...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AS BOUNDARY
LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED. THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
MAY ALSO FAVOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGER UPDRAFT
CORES.

..GARNER.. 07/28/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

LAT...LON 36781388 36191316 36131056 36590953 37280940 37930998
38181172 38041316 37701375 36781388

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