SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282035
MTZ000-IDZ000-282130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1703
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 282035Z - 282130Z
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...A WW DOES NOT APPEAR
NECESSARY.
A COMPACT BUT RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS MOVING SWD TOWARD
WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE COLD FRONTAL SURGE
AND MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OVER NRN MT. THIS MODERATE TO
STRONG FORCING ENVIRONMENT IS AIDING IN SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER PORTIONS OF WRN MT. MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE 40S WILL YIELD AT BEST 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...N-NWLY MID/UPR LEVEL MOMENTUM MAY RESULT IN A
FEW FAST MOVING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
/AROUND -14 DEG C/ MAY RESULT IN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER UPDRAFT CORES.
..GARNER.. 07/28/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO...
LAT...LON 45031298 45861395 46931456 47761419 47791343 47311193
46501039 45661040 44971133 45031298
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