SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292008
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-292215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1712
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 292008Z - 292215Z
AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON JUST E OF
WW 635.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA IS BEGINNING TO RECOVER FROM
RELATIVELY STABLE OUTFLOW PRODUCED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. AIR MASS
RECOVERY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S F.
WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
TWO POSSIBLE AREAS THAT MAY GROW UPSCALE INCLUDE A CLUSTER OF STORMS
NEAR THE COLD FRONT JUST SW OF GLD...AS WELL AS ANOTHER AREA NEAR
THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS FAR SE CO. WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS GENERALLY
WEAK...AND WILL REMAIN SO...SOME ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY NEAR THE OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WHILE THIS WILL ADD TO HODOGRAPH LENGTH AND WILL
LIKELY BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAILERS...A BRIEF/TRANSIENT TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE STORMS MERGE INTO SMALL BOWS/LINES.
..JEWELL.. 07/29/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36240339 37080282 37910247 39010257 39380150 38710095
37780051 36860023 35980048 35210077 34940144 35040210
35750286 36240339
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