SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292105
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-292200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1713
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0405 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/NJ/SERN NY/WRN CT/WRN MA/SRN VT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634...
VALID 292105Z - 292200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634
CONTINUES.
WW 634 WILL BE EXTENDED SWD IN AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONGER STORMS
TRACKING TOWARD SERN PA/SRN NJ.
ALTHOUGH REGIONAL RADARS HAVE INDICATED FEWER STRONGER STORMS DURING
THE LAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS WW 634...TSTMS FARTHER SOUTH HAVE
GENERALLY MAINTAINED INTENSITY AS THEY TRACK NNEWD INTO DELMARVA TO
FAR SERN PA/SRN NJ LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF
NRN VA SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MODERATE INSTABILITY/EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR AROUND 30 KT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH
STRONGER/ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.
IN ADDITION TO THESE SEVERE THREATS...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO ALSO EXISTS ALONG 30-35 KT LLJ EXTENDING FROM ERN MD/DEL TO
SERN NY WHICH IS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES
RANGING FROM 100-200 M2/S2/.
..PETERS.. 07/29/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LWX...
LAT...LON 40037392 38857510 38887612 39567679 39927708 41347667
42117630 43067550 43457443 43657386 43727340 43437295
43177244 42067218 41167255 40597325 40317331 40037392
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