DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

ACUS01 KWNS 270108
SWODY1
SPC AC 270106

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2009

VALID 270105Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL OK THROUGH SERN
KS...

CORRECTED FOR PROBABILITY GRAPHICS

...OK AND SRN KS AREA...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN NW MO
SWWD THROUGH ERN KS...W CNTRL OK INTO WRN TX. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM NWRN TX NWD INTO SWRN OK WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE COLD
FRONT. AXIS OF 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR FROM N
CNTRL TX...CNTRL OK THROUGH ERN KS. THE 00Z RAOB DATA FROM OKLAHOMA
CITY SHOWS VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND 7 C/KM LAPSE
RATES IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER...BUT WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS.
ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO ERN KS WITH TIME
WHERE GREATER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST AHEAD OF EWD MOVING
VORT MAX. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN MULTICELL IN CHARACTER WITH A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY MORNING...BUT TRENDS SHOULD BE FOR THE SEVERE THREAT
TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TOWARD LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS TO STABILIZE.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL UNTIL ABOUT 02Z. THE
STORMS ARE REMOVED FROM THE AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY FARTHER EAST
AND ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTING ANY
REMAINING SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF
DIABATIC HEATING.

...ERN TX...

A SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS PERSIST IN VICINITY OF E-W ORIENTED
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN TX. THE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN 30-35
KT NLY BULK SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A BELT OF MODEST FLOW ALONG WRN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER LA. ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT STORMS ARE
MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL LIKELY UNDERGO A GRADUAL DECREASE
WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

..SELECT A FORECASTER.. 08/27/2009

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