SWODY1
SPC AC 080058
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT FRI AUG 07 2009
VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NRN/CNTRL PLNS TO THE UPR MS VLY...
...MO/UPR MS RVR VLYS...
00Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MLCINH HAS BEEN TOUGH TO ERODE TODAY WITH
SFC-BASED INITIATION PROBABILITIES WANING WITH TIME. NEARLY ALL
MODELS SUGGEST SFC-BASED INITIATION MAY YET OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING
OVER NERN NEB OR WCNTRL/NWRN IA WHERE CURRENT SATL INDICATES SOME
ONGOING VERTICAL MOTION /AGITATED ACCAS FIELD/. SHOULD THIS
SCENARIO OCCUR...RAPID SUPERCELL FORMATION CAN BE EXPECTED AMID VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS /MLCAPE 3700 J PER KG/ AND 35 KTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED BANDS OF STORMS TO
BEGIN FORMING LATER THIS EVENING N OF THE SFC-H85 FRONT FROM SRN
MN/NRN IA INTO WI AND NRN IL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
MEANWHILE...SUPERCELL THAT INITIATED NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WILL
LIKELY TRAVEL ALONG A SFC FRONT/LOW INTO CNTRL SD WITH ADDITIONAL
FORMATION OF TSTMS POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE E WITH TIME THIS EVENING.
THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MOST LIKELY FOLLOW NRN EDGE OF THE AFTN HOT
BOUNDARY LAYER AND INTO UPR 60S/70S DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT...NAMELY
ACROSS CNTRL/NRN SD. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE
CAPPING INVERSION NOTED ON THE 00Z ABR SOUNDING AROUND H7.
...NRN HIGH PLNS...
CONSIDERABLE HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THAT INITIATED ACROSS THE HIGHER
MT/WY TERRAIN EARLY THIS AFTN ROOTED QUICKLY INTO THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER ACROSS SERN MT/NERN WY LATE IN THE AFTN. 00Z RIW SOUNDING
EXHIBITED A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
STORMS. RECENTLY...ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ATTAINING A STRONGER AND
MORE EXTENSIVE COLD POOL OVER SERN MT. EXPECT THAT SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ENE TOWARD NWRN SD/SWRN ND WITH AT LEAST
ISOLD LARGE HAIL/SVR WIND THREATS.
..RACY.. 08/08/2009
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