SWODY1
SPC AC 170111
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0811 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2009
VALID 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO THROUGH KS/NRN OK
TO LOWER MO VALLEY...
...ERN CO/KS/NWRN-NRN OK TO WRN-NRN MO AND SERN IA/NWRN IL...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS
WI...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED SWWD
THROUGH FAR ERN IA TO ERN KS...WRN OK TO W/SW TX. LITTLE MOVEMENT
OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN MO...WHILE THE
SWRN EXTENT RETREATS NWD INTO CENTRAL KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NRN OK TO SERN KS ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT
WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /30-40 KT/
SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS. MODELS
SUGGEST ACTIVITY OVER NERN CO SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS IT MOVES ENEWD
INTO NWRN KS/SWRN NEB THIS EVENING...BUT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE LIMITED GIVEN WEAKER INSTABILITY/STRONGER INHIBITION WITH EWD
EXTENT. MEANWHILE...THE ACTIVITY OVER NRN OK/SERN KS MAY WEAKEN
LATER THIS EVENING...WITH LIKELIHOOD FOR STORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE ACROSS KS...ALONG AND N OF RETREATING FRONT. A SSWLY LLJ
STRENGTHENING FROM W TX INTO SRN KS WILL RESULT IN A LOW LEVEL WAA
REGIME ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING THIS INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT SUGGESTS ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS MAINLY KS LATER TONIGHT WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS.
FARTHER E/NE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE TRACKING NEWD ACROSS NRN MO EARLY THIS EVENING. FORCING FOR
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH SOME INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL WAA TOWARD SERN IA/NWRN IL SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE YET THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS.
...SERN MO/SRN IL TO LOWER MI...
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ALONG THE EXTENT OF
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDED FROM LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH
CENTRAL/SRN IL TO SERN MO. PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER WRN IND
INTO SRN IL HAVE BEEN MODULATED BY COLD POOLS. WEAK EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN A LOW POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...WHILE
DIMINISHING AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DUE TO ONSET OF
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL FURTHER LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT.
...FL PANHANDLE/SRN AL...
T.S. CLAUDETTE PER NHC GUIDANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NWWD THROUGH THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE LATE THIS EVENING...REACHING SOUTH CENTRAL AL BY
12Z MONDAY. GIVEN RATHER COMPACT CIRCULATION ENVELOPE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THE AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR REMAINS
CONFINED TO A NARROW BELT IMMEDIATELY N-E OF THE TRACK. THE OVERALL
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED THROUGH 12Z...AND WILL
MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES.
..PETERS.. 08/17/2009
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