DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030102
SWODY1
SPC AC 030059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2009

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS
AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND VICINITY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FAR NRN CA AND INTO
OREGON...

...NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...
CAPPING -- PER EVENING RAOBS -- CONTINUES TO HINDER WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN QG FORCING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS A 35-45 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE UPPER
CIRCULATION/VORT MAX NOW CROSSING SERN ND/NERN SD. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT AN EXPANSION IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE -- AND POSSIBLY MCS
DEVELOPMENT -- LATER THIS EVENING. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION THIS EVENING...THOUGH
PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO HAIL AS STORMS BECOME PRIMARILY
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AS THEY SPREAD ACROSS MN AND INTO WI THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

...WRN KS SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/NERN NM...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM SRN NEB SWWD INTO NERN
NM...WITHIN AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. MODEST FLOW
THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE HAS YIELDED VERY SLOW STORM MOTION...BUT
EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE A BIT MORE SWD WITH TIME AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN DIURNAL NATURE OF THE
STORMS...EXPECT A SLOW DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS
LATER THIS EVENING. IN THE MEAN TIME...MODEST SHEAR BUT FAVORABLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION.

...PARTS OF OREGON AND FAR NRN CA...
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NRN CA AND INTO
OREGON...WITHIN MODEST/DIFFLUENT SSELY MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELD AHEAD OF
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST. EVENING MFR /MEDFORD
OREGON/ RAOB CONFIRMS OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATING 1500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE LOCALLY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
STRONG/LOCALLY-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MID-EVENING.

..GOSS.. 08/03/2009

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