SWODY2
SPC AC 240535
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2009
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...
GENERALLY WEAK LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGH THE DAY2 PERIOD...NOT TOO ATYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER. NRN-MOST
CURRENT...CHARACTERIZED BY STRONGER WLYS ACROSS CANADA...WILL FORCE
A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY REGION
TUESDAY...PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
ONTARIO. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS WI...SWWD THROUGH IA
INTO WRN KS/ERN CO BY PEAK HEATING...WHERE IT SHOULD SERVE AS THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS CIN DECREASES AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DEEPENS. ADDITIONALLY...LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST REMNANTS OF SWRN U.S. UPPER VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE WRN FRINGE OF AFOREMENTIONED SFC WIND SHIFT ACROSS CO
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. IT/S POSSIBLE WEAKER IMPULSES
WILL EJECT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WELL AHEAD OF PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS.
THIS COULD EASILY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT HOURS...PRIMARILY ALONG/JUST NORTH OF WIND
SHIFT WHERE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD AID ELEVATED UPDRAFTS. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WOULD PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
BEFORE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN.
...ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SWRN U.S. ALONG AN AXIS FROM NRN MEXICO...ERN AZ/WRN NM INTO THE
CNTRL ROCKIES.
OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE FL
PENINSULA WHERE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT PRIMARILY PULSE-TYPE SUB-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
..DARROW.. 08/24/2009
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