SWODY2
SPC AC 250509
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2009
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
MEAN UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE WRN U.S. AND GENERALLY
WEAK TROUGHING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WHERE SHEAR IS A BIT
STRONGER...THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO
PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS WHERE STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
WILL LIKELY AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEAK SFC BOUNDARY.
ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST...AS DOES WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...THAT SWRN U.S. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE WRN
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES BEFORE TURNING SEWD ACROSS KS/OK.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY FROM SERN KS...SWWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE. EVEN SO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT PARTICULARLY
FAVOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS VERTICAL SHEAR/MEAN WIND IS
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL.
..DARROW.. 08/25/2009
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