SWODY3
SPC AC 140715
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPR MS VLY TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLNS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPR TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AN EMBEDDED MID-LVL DISTURBANCE...INITIALLY OVER
THE MO VLY EARLY SUNDAY...WILL ROTATE NEWD INTO CANADA BY EVENING
WHILE A SECONDARY IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS.
IN THE LWR LVLS...CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THE TROUGH WILL DECELERATE OVER
THE UPR MS VLY...CORN BELT AND CNTRL PLNS AS IT BECOMES ALIGNED WITH
THE FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PSBL SVR TSTMS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
...UPR MS TO THE LWR MO VLYS...
AFTER SUNDAY MORNING TSTM CLUSTERS WEAKEN AND DEPART INTO THE UPR
GRTLKS REGION...AIR MASS WILL LIKELY RECOVER ALONG THE CDFNT FROM
PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY SWWD INTO KS. PERSISTENT LLVL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF A HIGH LVL JET COUPLED
WITH FAVORABLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL YIELD TSTMS BY MID-AFTN
SUNDAY. STRONGEST FLOW WILL REMAIN N OF THE FRONT...BUT MODEST
LAPSE RATES/HEATING AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF 40-45 KTS OF SWLY MID-LVL
FLOW WILL FAVOR STRONG STORMS WITH POSSIBLE DMGG WIND GUSTS/HAIL.
...CNTRL HIGH PLNS...
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MAINTENANCE/ADVECTION OF LLVL MOISTURE
ALONG THE HIGHER CO TERRAIN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST POTENTIAL
BUOYANCY SUNDAY AFTN. APPROACH OF THE NEXT MID-LVL WAVE WILL
ENHANCE DIURNAL CIRCULATIONS WITH HIGH-BASED TSTMS EVOLVING INTO
STRONGER SUPERCELLS /LARGE HAIL/ E OF THE FRONT RANGE BY SUNDAY
EVENING GIVEN PROGGED 40-45 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. PROPAGATION OF THIS
ACTIVITY AND MERGING OF OTHER STORMS THAT DEVELOP EWD ALONG/N OF THE
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CO PLNS/WRN KS WILL CULMINATE IN A
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING MCS. ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY
MOVE/DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE LENGTH OF KS WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR
HIGH WINDS/HAIL BY 12Z MONDAY.
..RACY.. 08/14/2009
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