SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022248
ORZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-022345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1752
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0548 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN CA...CNTRL/SWRN OR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 648...
VALID 022248Z - 022345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 648
CONTINUES.
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NRN CA AND CNTRL/SWRN OR.
AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE OF THE CNTRL CA COAST CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY
DRIFT ENEWD. A SUBTLE VORT MAX HAS ROTATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW...AND IS NOW MOVING NWWD THROUGH FAR NRN CA INTO
SWRN OR...AIDING IN ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN A MOIST
AIRMASS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE ASSISTED IN
DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPE ROUGHLY NEAR 1500 J/KG AS OF 2230Z.
CURRENT VAD WIND PROFILE DATA INDICATES SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE
WIND FIELDS COMPARED TO SATURDAY/S ACTIVITY...WITH GENERALLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SELY FLOW AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES NEAR 35 KTS.
THIS REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR OCCASIONAL ROTATING STORMS...AS
EVIDENCED BY RECENT RADAR DATA WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN KLAMATH
AND LAKE COUNTIES. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE
HAIL FORMATION...WHILE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL DMGG WIND GUSTS AS WELL.
..HURLBUT.. 08/02/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...REV...MFR...STO...PQR...EKA...
LAT...LON 41232004 41152313 42492368 43412226 44772180 44892000
44711940 41232004
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