SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030022
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-030215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN KS...OK PANHANDLE...NRN TX
PANHANDLE....NERN NM.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 649...
VALID 030022Z - 030215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 649
CONTINUES.
AS OF 00Z WIDELY SCATTERED STG-SVR TSTMS WERE EVIDENT ALONG AXIS
FROM SMITH COUNTY KS SWWD TO NEAR GUY. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AS ACTIVITY
ENCOUNTERS PRONOUNCED SFC MOIST AXIS ANALYZED FROM NERN TX PANHANDLE
NWD TO NEAR GCK...THEN NNEWD NEAR HDE/EAR. CONVECTION OVER GOVE
COUNTY KS ALREADY HAS PRODUCED DAMAGING GUSTS...WITH MRGL SVR HAIL
REPORTED FROM NEARLY STATIONARY STORM OVER HASKELL COUNTY DURING
PAST HALF HOUR. WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS WITH THIS AND OTHER ACTIVITY.
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL AND RESULTING LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL BE GREATEST
FOR QUASISTATIONARY OR SWD-MOVING CONVECTION...BASED ON VWP/PROFILER
HODOGRAPHS...00Z DDC RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS YIELDING 0-3 KM SRH UP
TO 250 J/KG. SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F SHOULD REMAIN COMMON
INVOF MOIST AXIS...SUPPORTING MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG. AIR MASS DRIES
AND STABILIZES CONSIDERABLY WITH EWD EXTENT AWAY FROM MOIST
AXIS...INDICATING CORRESPONDING DROPOFF IN SVR THREAT TOWARD CENTRAL
KS. GREATEST MOIST ADVECTION AND TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST E OF MOIST AXIS...WHICH MAY PIVOT EWD SLIGHTLY AFTER
02Z AS LLJ INCREASES. MLCINH ALSO WILL INCREASE AFTER ABOUT 03Z
BECAUSE OF DIABATIC SFC COOLING...BUT SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE
IN MEANTIME. LLJ INCREASE ALSO WILL BOOST HODOGRAPHS SIZE FOR 2-3
HOURS TO REINFORCE SFC-BASED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...UNTIL NEAR-SFC
LAYER COOLS 6-10 DEG F TO START REMOVING SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE
PARCELS.
MULTICELL CLUSTER -- INCREASING IN SIZE AND STRENGTH OVER NERN NM --
IS GROWING IN DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT AND MAY EVOLVE INTO
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT...FORWARD PROPAGATING COMPLEX. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AS IT MOVES SEWD TOWARD SOMEWHAT MORE
MOIST/BUOYANCY AIR MASS INTO TX PANHANDLE.
..EDWARDS.. 08/03/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35560465 37350131 39020062 39490034 39529981 39969926
39979849 39159852 39129898 37709899 37739948 37019951
36020012 35300277 35560465
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