SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032252
NVZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-CAZ000-032345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1762
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0552 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NV/SERN AND CNTRL ORE/SWRN ID
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 032252Z - 032345Z
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY AND/OR HAVING VERY
SLOW/ERRATIC MOVEMENT GENERALLY TOWARDS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. DMGG
WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES...IN ADDITION
TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
AN UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE OF THE CNTRL CA COAST CONTINUES TO VERY
SLOWLY DRIFT ENEWD...WITH VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY
AND UPPER DIVERGENCE PROVIDING FAVORABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL
MOTION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST
AIRMASS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED ON WV IMAGERY HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT
EWD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH INITIAL CU FIELDS/CONVECTION SEEN
ON VISIBLE IMAGERY NOW DEVELOPING OVER NRN NV...MUCH OF SERN
ORE...AND SRN ID. AMPLE SURFACE HEATING HAS LED TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ALLOWING WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS ARE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...MID TO UPPER
FLOW MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS AN UPPER
JET MAX NOW MOVING INTO CNTRL CA/NV CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NEWD.
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN WIND FIELDS MAY
SUPPORT MARGINAL TO SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER CORES. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR
DMGG/ERRATIC WINDS AT THE SURFACE AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING ENHANCES
DOWNBURSTS BENEATH SLOW MOVING STORMS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE
ANTICIPATED.
..HURLBUT.. 08/03/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...PDT...REV...MFR...PQR...
LAT...LON 42571519 42211510 41901607 41591799 41171987 42092089
42362234 43762205 43812192 44452024 44381883 44031828
43221597 42741545 42571519
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