SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152210
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-152315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1895
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN CO/NWRN KS/SWRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 152210Z - 152315Z
ONGOING STORMS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL-NERN CO...MAY
BECOME SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS NEWD INTO
REGION OF GREATER INSTABILITY OVER KS/NEB. ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 35-40
DEGREES. IF ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NERN CO INTO NWRN
KS/SWRN NEB INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THEN A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED.
ALTHOUGH STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS LOCATED
FARTHER N ACROSS WW 706...THE CO ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SRN
EXTENT OF THIS FLOW REGIME WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT.
AREA VWP/PROFILER DATA INDICATED WEAK ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS BENEATH
STRONGER SWLY MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS RESULTING IN STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS
FAVORING POTENTIAL FOR STORM SPLITS AS RECENTLY OBSERVED OVER SRN
WASHINGTON COUNTY PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. AS SRN EXTENT OF
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS NEWD INTO SWRN NEB/NWRN
KS...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP WHERE INSTABILITY IS STRONGER AND
GIVEN AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NWD FROM NWRN KS.
..PETERS.. 08/15/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 39270362 39900330 40440290 40940289 41010137 41040048
40080027 39140030 38930122 38900246 38980298 39270362
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