SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152224
KSZ000-OKZ000-160000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1896
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 152224Z - 160000Z
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE INCREASED ACROSS S-CNTRL KS INVOF ICT
AREA...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED AND SHORT
ENOUGH IN DURATION TO PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE.
OBSERVATIONAL IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER S-CNTRL KS INVOF ICT. PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM APPEARS TO BE LOW-LEVEL WAA GIVEN A THERMAL AXIS OF MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO THE SW OF THE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IMPINGING UPON AN AREA OF LESSER HEATING OVER ERN KS
WHERE UPPER 70S TO 80S RESIDE IN THE WAKE OF AN MCV NOW OVER FAR
NERN KS. THE COMBINATION OF MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG AND 0-3 KM
SRH OF 150 TO 250 M2/S2 ARE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST TRANSIENT UPDRAFT
ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS DEPICT WEAKENING
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS THE NERN KS MCV TRACKS
NEWD DURING THE EVENING SUGGESTING OVERALL SUPERCELL THREAT MAY BE
NEAR ITS PEAK DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...MODEST
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY 18Z LAMONT OK RAOB WOULD TEND TO
FAVOR GENERALLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S/.
..GRAMS.. 08/15/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 37479807 37989762 38389706 38799634 38829574 38579534
38319504 37609506 37389532 37159572 36899646 36819778
37079811 37479807
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