SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160103
NEZ000-160200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1898
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0803 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/E-CNTRL NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 160103Z - 160200Z
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/BRIEF TORNADO MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NEAR OFK. A
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE LIMITED AREAL EXTENT AND TRANSIENT
NATURE OF THE THREAT.
COMPLEX CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS PERSISTED SINCE ABOUT 20Z OVER NERN
NEB. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS SAMPLED OCCASIONAL MESOCYCLONE
STRUCTURES WITH CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CLUSTER JUST W/NW OF OFK.
THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED MICROBURST AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL CERTAINLY
BE SUPPORTED BY A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW
POINTS/ AND SFC-1 KM SRH AROUND 150 M2/S2. A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN
WINDS FROM 700-500 MB ALONG WITH LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6 DEG C/KM...PER 00Z OAX RAOB...SHOULD LIMIT LONGEVITY OF
INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFT ROTATION AND LARGER-SCALE CLUSTER ORGANIZATION.
THE MORE PROMINENT HAZARD SHOULD BE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE SLOW-MOVING
NATURE OF THE CLUSTER...PW VALUES AROUND 1.50 TO 1.75 IN...AND A
STRENGTHENING LLJ MAINTAINING RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
..GRAMS.. 08/16/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...
LAT...LON 42209817 42479784 42489700 41989682 41789688 41559709
41319747 41219786 41399820 41759819 42209817
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