SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162341
KSZ000-OKZ000-170115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1900
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 162341Z - 170115Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF
SCNTRL/SERN KS INTO NCNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS EFFECTIVELY REMOVED INHIBITION
ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM NCNTRL OK INTO ECNTRL KS THIS EVENING. WHAT
IS LIKELY HOLDING BACK MORE EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS THE
APPARENT WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT/CONVERGENCE ALONG WIND SHIFT THAT
NOW STRETCHES FROM NEAR MCI...SWWD TO ICT...TO NEAR GAG. AIRMASS IS
HOWEVER QUITE MOIST AND NAM MODEL IN PARTICULAR GENERATES CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF GENERATING
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO EVOLVE/SURVIVE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY RECEIVE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT LATE THIS EVENING
AS LLJ BEGINS TO IMPINGE OF FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NWRN OK/SCNTRL KS.
..DARROW.. 08/16/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 35939901 37429760 38509634 38319535 37169590 36309677
35689838 35939901
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