SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172151
KSZ000-COZ000-172315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1906
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SERN CO...W-CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 172151Z - 172315Z
TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD POSE A THREAT FOR
SEVERE HAIL/WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO...WITHIN A NARROW
CORRIDOR ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO W-CNTRL KS. MODERATE
TO STRONG CAPPING INVERSION S OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL AREAL EXTENT OF THE THREAT AND MAY MITIGATE THE NEED FOR A
WW ISSUANCE.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 21Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED
A WEAK BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT EXTENDING E/SEWD OF TSTMS IN ELBERT
COUNTY CO TO ALONG THE WALLACE/GREELEY COUNTY LINE IN KS. SPLITTING
CELLS WERE ALREADY EVIDENT IN RECENT RADAR IMAGERY...SUPPORTED BY
STRONG SPEED SHEAR AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WIND PROFILES BETWEEN 2-7
KM AGL SAMPLED BY PLATTEVILLE CO PROFILER. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
AROUND 10 DEG F HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500
J/KG SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTINCT LACK OF CU S OF THE
BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT SUGGESTS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE PROBLEMATIC
FOR EXPANSION OF CONVECTION S OF THE PALMER DIVIDE...WITH A SEPARATE
AREA OF TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE RATON MESA. OVERALL THREAT IN
E-CNTRL CO MAY REMAIN TOO LOCALIZED TO WARRANT A WW ISSUANCE.
..GRAMS.. 08/17/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 39650530 39950430 39840239 39510139 39130065 38880071
38650088 38390130 38230185 38380254 38680304 38950409
38750498 38870531 39650530
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