SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240412
NDZ000-MTZ000-240545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1962
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN MT INTO WRN ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 733...
VALID 240412Z - 240545Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 733
CONTINUES.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE/
INTENSITY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. AND...UPSCALE CONVECTIVE
GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH/EAST OF THE WOLF POINT AREA
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITHIN A STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
WARM ADVECTION REGIME...IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THE EVOLVING STORM CLUSTER WILL
BEGIN TO TURN WITH FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING INTO NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ACROSS THE WILLISTON AREA TOWARD MINOT...BY THE
06-07Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY BE ROOTED ABOVE A LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION LAYER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY SIZABLE
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SURFACE COLD
POOL. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER DOWNDRAFTS WILL REACH THE SURFACE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND GUSTS. BUT...A MODERATELY STRONG /UP TO
30 KT/ EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW BELOW THE INVERSION...INTO THE
EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD POOL...MAY CONTRIBUTE A STRONG DYNAMICALLY
FORCED LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY OSCILLATION CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS.
..KERR.. 08/24/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...
LAT...LON 48960139 48600104 48160108 47790129 47670297 47220410
47640523 48790487 48960139
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