SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242248
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-250015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1965
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0548 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE CO...WRN KS...SW NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 242248Z - 250015Z
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE REGION. BUT...DUE TO SPARSE COVERAGE AND SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL/SHORT LIVED NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT...THE NEED FOR A WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING NEAR/WEST OF
GOODLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN A FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF A WEAK SLOW MOVING OR
QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTH NORTHEAST OF GOODLAND...ACROSS THE GOODLAND AREA
...INTO EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AN AREA OF UPPER FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES/SPEED MAXIMA LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...IS CONTRIBUTING TO
STORMS...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN
THE HOT THERMAL RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY.
A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREADS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS IN A BAND
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF HILL CITY. HOWEVER...A MORE MOIST
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
FARTHER TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR MORE
SUSTAINED STORMS...CONTRIBUTING TO LARGER CAPE AND STRONGER SHEAR AT
LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL TYPE STRUCTURES. STRONGEST
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH UPPER FORCING NORTH OF GOODLAND
INTO AREAS WEST OF MCCOOK DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS... BUT PROBABLY
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING BY
OR SHORTLY AFTER THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME.
..KERR.. 08/24/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 38580408 39120379 39490314 39960221 40330167 40740080
40719976 40279901 39539912 38909978 38290084 37730171
37540285 37860328 38190384 38580408
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