SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250323
NEZ000-250500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1966
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S CNTRL THRU NE NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 250323Z - 250500Z
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ONGOING TO THE NORTHEAST OF BROKEN
BOW...NEAR ORD...AND ON NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORFOLK
VICINITY...APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING WHERE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED ON THE NOSE OF A
30-40 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET. WHILE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER
MEAN FLOW IS SUPPORTING THE NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF
STORMS...PROFILES HAVE BEEN FAVORING THE TENDENCY FOR REGENERATION
OF STRONG NEW STORMS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ORD. THIS
TENDENCY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH 05-06Z...BEFORE
VIGOROUS UPSTREAM STORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD POOL...SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER IMPULSE...ADVANCE INTO THE REGION. THEREAFTER...
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO GENERALLY ONE EXPANDING STORM CLUSTER APPEARS
POSSIBLE...BEFORE ACTIVITY FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. UNTIL THIS OCCURS...LOCALIZED
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN MAY BECOME
MORE PROMINENT...ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT/TRAINING STORMS IN THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND SEASONABLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES.
..KERR.. 08/25/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 40910015 41699987 42189911 42449798 42239689 41529707
41239820 40849884 40649935 40659977 40910015
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