SWODY1
SPC AC 291950
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2009
VALID 292000Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
LITTLE CHANGES TO ONGOING FCST.
...SRN TX...
FRONT HAS STALLED OVER SCNTRL TX THIS AFTN WITH PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS
REMAINING VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG.
SEABREEZE HAS PENETRATED INLAND ALONG THE ERN PARTS OF THE LWR VLY
AND SCNTRL TX. BNDRY SHOULD CONTINUE WWD THROUGH THE CNTRL LWR VLY
AND NWD INTO SRN PARTS OF THE UPR TX CSTL REGION THROUGH THIS
EVE...AUGMENTED BY TSTM OUTFLOW. FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A
FEW TSTMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LOCALLY
AUGMENTED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTION SUCH THAT ISOLD PULSE SVR STORMS
/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS/ WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..RACY.. 09/29/2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2009/
...SRN TX...
E/W FRONTAL ZONE STILL DRIFTING SWD BUT EXPECTED TO STALL THIS
AFTERNOON ON A LINE FROM ABOUT PSX TO LRD. A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE
AND WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MOST ACTIVE STORMS VICINITY FRONTAL ZONE. SHEAR IS
WEAK...HOWEVER WITH MLCAPES UP TO 3000 J/KG...A FEW STRONG/BRIEFLY
SEVERE PULSE STORMS ARE LIKELY. LIFT ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVING
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS.
PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALIZED
DOWNBURST WINDS.
ELSEWHERE...STRONG/COLD TROUGH ENTERING INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS...PRIMARILY ALONG/POST-FRONTAL AND AFTER 00Z.
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