DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091555
SWODY1
SPC AC 091552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CDT WED SEP 09 2009

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE WLYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH EARLY
THU...LEAVING THE CONUS IN SLACK FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A RDG OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AND A DIFFUSE LOW OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SFC
REFLECTION OF APPALACHIAN LOW WILL REMAIN MINIMAL...LIMITED TO
CONFLUENCE ZONE/COOL FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NRN MS ESE TO SRN SC.
BACK WEST...COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY SHOULD
FURTHER WEAKEN AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER ERN MT/WY AHEAD OF
NEXT IMPULSE APPROACHING THE CANADIAN RCKYS.

...SRN APPALACHIANS AND SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TODAY...
LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT EXPECTED WITH WV UPR LOW THIS PERIOD AS
SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE ABOUT IT. SEASONABLY
COOL MID LVL TEMPERATURES /AOB MINUS 10 C/ WITH THE SYSTEM WILL ONCE
AGAIN FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...DESPITE ABSENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED SFC REFLECTION.
STORMS SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED INVOF PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED
CONFLUENCE ZONE/COOL FRONT...AND CLOSE TO EMBEDDED VORTS NOW OVER NE
TN/SW VA AND PIEDMONT NC. COMBINATION OF MID LVL COLD POOL /-12 TO
-14 C AT 500 MB/...AND BELT OF 20 KT MID LVL WNW FLOW ON SW FRINGE
OF LOW...WILL SUPPORT SCTD MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLD DMGG
WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL. A FEW MARGINAL SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR NEAR
THE FRONT...AND OVER THE CAROLINAS...GIVEN LIGHT ELY NEAR-SFC FLOW
IN THESE AREAS.

...SRN OZARKS/OUACHITAS...
SE KS MCS APPEARS TO HAVE A WEAK EMBEDDED CIRCULATION/MCV. THE
CIRCULATION SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY ESE...WITH NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED PRIMARILY ON ITS SW FLANK ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN AR.
COMBINATION OF ENHANCED WNW MID LVL FLOW WITH MCV...PW AOA 1.75
INCHES...AND CONFLUENT WSWLY LOW LVL FLOW MAY YIELD A BAND OR TWO OF
STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 09/09/2009

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.