SWODY2
SPC AC 070530
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT MON SEP 07 2009
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH S-CNTRL CANADA AND THE NRN
PLAINS...REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT WILL ATTEND THIS FEATURE AND LIKELY EXTEND FROM CNTRL
ND THROUGH ERN WY EARLY TUESDAY...AND FROM NWRN MN THROUGH CNTRL NEB
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. A CUTOFF LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE OH VALLEY
REGION.
...ERN ND AND NW MN THROUGH SD AND NEB...
AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP FROM WRN MN...ERN SD INTO NEB WHERE ERN EXTENSION OF STEEPER
LAPSE RATES OVERLAPS MOIST AXIS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S. STORMS WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT FROM ERN
ND SWWD THROUGH CNTRL SD AND WRN NEB AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES
ROTATING TROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH ATTENDANT MID LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL REMAIN IN POST FRONTAL ZONE...LIMITING VERTICAL
SHEAR IN WARM SECTOR. LINEAR NATURE OF THE FORCING SUGGESTS SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO MULTICELL LINES AND CLUSTERS.
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IN WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF HAIL AND ISOLATED
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A LOW END CATEGORICAL RISK AREA COULD BE
INTRODUCED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..DIAL.. 09/07/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment