SWOD48
SPC AC 040807
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2009
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY
THROUGH DAY 6. SOME DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS EXIST REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE...TIMING AND EJECTION OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WILL EJECT
NEWD INTO SRN CANADA AROUND DAY 6 AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MEAN
RIDGE POSITION...LEAVING A WEAKENED TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS.
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE UPPER
MS VALLEY...BUT THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
LIKELY REMAIN POST FRONTAL. SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
MAY EXIST FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY FROM DAY 5
THROUGH 6. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY
PARAMETER SPACE WILL NOT BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A HIGHER END
SEVERE EVENT.
..DIAL.. 09/04/2009
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