SWOD48
SPC AC 160813
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2009
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO EXPAND ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM. WHILE MODELS BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT WITH RESPECT TO THE PATTERN EVOLUTION
BEGINNING DAY 6 /MON. SEPT. 21/...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS
MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WILL INDEED TAKE PLACE.
LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EVIDENT DAY 4 /SAT. SEPT.
19/...THOUGH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT MAY OCCUR OVER THE
PLAINS DAY 5 /SUN. SEPT. 20/ AS THE UPPER TROUGH -- AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT -- BEGIN TO AFFECT THIS REGION. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD EVOLVE OVER THE CENTRAL/S.CENTRAL
U.S. DAY 6 /MON. SEPT. 21/...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EWD INTO THE MS
VALLEY REGION AND SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER WILL NOT YET
HIGHLIGHT A THREAT AREA DAY 6 OR BEYOND...AS INCREASING MODEL
DIFFERENCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD RESULT IN INSUFFICIENT FORECAST
CERTAINTY.
..GOSS.. 09/16/2009
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