SWOD48
SPC AC 190821
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2009
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER DATA NOW DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND D4 /TUE SEP 22ND/ WITH THE EVOLUTION OF CUT-OFF
LOW. THE GFS RETREGRADES SYSTEM WWD INTO THE SWRN DESERTS BEFORE
WEAKENING IT. IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE CIRCULATION
OVER THE CNTRL CONUS INTO D7 /FRI SEP 25TH/ BEFORE PHASING IT WITH A
HIGHER LATITUDE IMPULSE. REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION...THE PROSPECT FOR
AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT APPEAR RATHER LOW.
..MEAD.. 09/19/2009
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