SWOD48
SPC AC 250859
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009
VALID 281200Z - 031200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
MODELS AND MODEL RUNS CONCERNING THE FORECAST UPPER FLOW EVOLUTION
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH APPEAR
SUGGESTIVE THAT THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL TEND TO BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST OR
CANADIAN MARITIMES NEXT WEEK...WITH A MORE PROMINENT BLOCKING RIDGE
FORMING NEAR HUDSON BAY. HOW THIS AFFECTS UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS IS
STILL UNCLEAR. THE LATEST ECMWF NOW APPEARS SUBSTANTIALLY SLOWER
AND FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL...AS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WOULD LIKELY YIELD
HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES.
..KERR.. 09/25/2009
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