SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071815
KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-071945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1995
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 PM CDT MON SEP 07 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...ERN KY...FAR WRN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 071815Z - 071945Z
A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ACROSS ERN TN...ERN KY AND FAR WRN VA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND WW
ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
THE THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED FROM NEAR JACKSON KY SWWD TO NORTHWEST OF
KNOXVILLE TN ARE JUST AHEAD OF A PRONOUNCED VORTICITY MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THE LATEST RUC
SHOWS AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING ENEWD FROM MIDDLE TN
INTO SE KY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED AT 1000-2000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING AT NASHVILLE HAS 20-25 KT OF
0-6KM SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE MCD AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT MULTICELLS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH TIME. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.
..BROYLES.. 09/07/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...OHX...
LAT...LON 35618396 36098347 36518315 37228248 37578277 37128357
36968390 36708446 36538498 36348554 35808577 35428571
35288539 35228500 35398440 35618396
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