SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071931
NCZ000-072030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1996
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT MON SEP 07 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF ONSLOW BAY NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 071931Z - 072030Z
POTENTIAL FOR A CONDITIONAL ISOLD TORNADO EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NC FROM MIDDLE PARTS OF ONSLOW BAY NEWD TOWARDS CAPE
HATTERAS UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
KMHX RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS HAVE SHOWN TSTMS REPEATEDLY
ATTEMPTING TO SUSTAIN BRIEF/SHALLOW MESOCYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS S AND
E OF CAPE LOOKOUT OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. RECENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS PLACES A 1010 LOW 45 MI S OF ILM WITH A WELL DEFINED
INVERTED TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE EXTENDING NWD TO 15 MI E ILM
THEN EWD S OF CAPE LOOKOUT. A NARROW THETA-E AXIS IS WEDGED NWWD
TOWARDS ONSLOW BAY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR E AND NE OF THE SURFACE
LOW.
ENHANCED LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE NEAR AND NE OF LOW CENTER ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH VERY MOIST/MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES NWD. GIVEN PRESENCE OF STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR /NEAR
20 KTS/ AND FAVORABLY LOW LCL/S...AN ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY TSTM EXHIBITING MINI SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS.
..SMITH.. 09/07/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...
LAT...LON 34217771 34397762 35377610 35287565 35057553 34777570
33967722 33947761 34217771
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