SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151846
COZ000-UTZ000-152015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2018
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT AND WRN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151846Z - 152015Z
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS OCCURRING OVER ERN UT AND WRN CO. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO MARGINAL TO JUSTIFY A WW AT THIS
TIME.
A COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED AT 18Z OVER CENTRAL-S
CENTRAL UT...AND IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SSEWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. LARGE SCALE ASCENT PRESENT ENE OF
THE UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING/BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION IS AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASING
COVERAGE OVER PORTIONS OF ERN UT AND WRN CO. ONE STORM MOVING NEWD
FROM SAN MIGUEL COUNTY INTO MONTROSE COUNTY COLORADO HAS RECENTLY
DISPLAYED DEVIANT RIGHTWARD MOTION /COMPARED TO SURROUNDING CELLS/
ALONG WITH WEAK MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
VALUES ACROSS THE REGION ARE AROUND 30-35 KT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES RESIDE NEAR 8 C/KM...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL STORM
ACTIVITY MAY ACQUIRE BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR ORGANIZATION...POSING A
THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN THE COOL MID LEVEL AIRMASS.
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALSO AID IN
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.
..GARNER.. 09/15/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...
LAT...LON 37601131 38601181 39771165 40621031 40700866 40040758
38970725 37770760 37400876 37331044 37601131
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